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Announcements

August 7, 2019

Tom Sinder of our Sidney facility, has announced his retirement effective Friday, August 9th after over 40 years with Premier Cooperative. We will be hosting a Retirement Party for Tom on Tuesday, August 20th, from 12-3pm at the Sidney United Church. Please RSVP to Denise at 217-688-2307 if you plan...
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Premier Market Commentary

August 16, 2019

 

Size Does Matter

One of the largest private crop tours in the United States kicks off on Monday. The tour, organized by agricultural newsletter Pro Farmer, deploys teams of volunteer scouts to survey hundreds of corn and soybean fields across a seven-state area of the Midwest. There is both Eastern and Western leg of the tour. The states surveyed include: OH, IN, IL, MN, IA, SD, and NE. Results of the tour – surveyed state and projected national yields for corn and soybeans will be released Thursday.

The traditional estimating procedure for corn has been counting harvestable ears in two 30’ long rows. Length and girth of the ears are checked by selecting three specific corn ears from each row – the 5th, 8th, and 11th ear. Ears are taken irrespective of size and then the length (of grain – bare cobs and aborted kernels are not counted) and girth are measured for each ear, along with kernel counts. Yield is derived by multiplying the average ear population by the average grain length, and then multiplied by the average number of kernel rows and divided by row width.

 In soybeans, the traditional yield estimating procedure has been necessarily more tedious and labor intensive. The entailed process requires measuring off a 3’ long plot and then counting the total number of plants. Three plants from within the plot are randomly pulled by the scouts and pods of at least .25” in length on each plant are counted to calculate the average pods per plant. Once pod and plant counts are known, the total pod count in the 3’ plot is multiplied by 36 and then divided by the row space.

The trade awaits the figures, but how accurate and consistent are the results of the Pro Farmer Tour, historically speaking?

** Pro Farmer Crop Tour History ** Skepticism surrounding the numbers this year will be higher than normal given this year’s later development/immaturity of the crop. However, ARC’s work can find no evidence that the size of Pro Farmer’s yield discrepancies are a function of crop maturity. In 2009, just 24% of the corn crop had reached dough. Pro Farmer missed the 2009 Sep NASS yield by just 1.8 Bu/Acre. In 2005, the crop had reached 65% dough and PF Tour missed September yield by 6.6 Bu/Acre. There’s a strong tendency for Pro Farmer to understate NASS corn yields in September - and beyond. The attached graphic shows the relationship between the Tour’s yield and NASS Sep and Final yields. The Tour has been below NASS’s Sep yield in 14 of the last 18 years. In fact, there’s a decent model agreement that the PF Tour should add a full Bu to their yield estimate.

** Pro Farmer Crop Tour History **The same relationship is apparent with PF Tour’s soybean yield estimate. The Tour has understated NASS’s Sep soy yield in 10 of the last 18 years. The Tour has understated Final NASS yield in 13 of the last 18 years. Like corn, it makes good sense to add 0.5-1.0 Bu to the Tour’s estimate to get a better idea of NASS’s next projection. In IN/OH only 34-35% of beans were setting pods as of last Sunday. The Tour will have a difficult time being overly precise with its soy yield estimate this year. The PF Tour will give the market the first widespread private view of crops and whether NASS’s initial estimates are wildly wrong. However, it’s ARC’s opinion that clarity over yield this year will come from combine data.

MARKET MOVERS

USDA Weekly Export Inspections Monday 08/19/2019 @ 10:00 AM

USDA Crop Progress report Monday 8/19/2019 @ 3:00 pm

USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday 8/22/2019 @ 7:30 am

HAVE A PREMIER DAY

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  Apex
CORN SOYBEANS WHEAT, SRW
Price (+/-) Price (+/-) Price (+/-)
8/31/19 3.81
10'2
Chart 8.37
9'0
Chart    
10/31/19 3.76
9'6
Chart 8.35
9'0
Chart    
11/30/19 3.76
9'6
Chart 8.35
9'0
Chart    
12/31/19 3.78
9'6
Chart 8.38
9'2
Chart    
1/31/20 3.83
9'2
Chart 8.43
9'2
Chart    
3/31/20 3.83
9'2
Chart 8.51
9'4
Chart    
5/31/20 3.85
8'6
Chart 8.57
9'2
Chart    
7/31/20 3.91
8'0
Chart 8.64
9'0
Chart    
10/31/20 3.68
5'0
Chart 8.73
9'2
Chart    
11/30/20 3.68
5'0
Chart 8.73
9'2
Chart    
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